Lynx Equity Outlines Bullish Micron Thesis Ahead of Q4 Earnings

Lynx Equity Strategies has established a long position on Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) ahead of its highly anticipated fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, arguing that the market has not fully grasped a fundamental shift in the AI memory landscape.

The Shift to 'Agentic' AI

The firm's core thesis, outlined by analyst KC Rajkumar, centers on the evolution of AI tasks. Lynx believes the center of gravity is moving from token generation on GPUs, which uses High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), to longer-running agentic workloads on CPUs that favor CPU-attached memory like lpDDR5x.

“Few on the Street made the connection that MU is a beneficiary of Meta's Muse agentic workloads,” Rajkumar wrote in a note. He explained that this transition puts upward pressure on overall memory Average Selling Prices (ASPs), a key tailwind for Micron.

Supply Discipline and Aggressive Forecasts

Lynx also counters a common bearish concern: a potential supply glut in 2028-2029. The firm believes industry leader Samsung will prioritize profitability over market share, maintaining tight supply even as data center demand visibility extends into the coming years. “This reduces the possibility of a supply glut in 2028/29, a key worry for investors,” Rajkumar stated.

This view underpins an extremely bullish long-term forecast that is substantially above Wall Street consensus. Lynx models a path for Micron to reach:

Ad

• CY2027: $350 billion in revenue with an 85% gross margin.
• CY2028: $525 billion in revenue with an 80% gross margin.

While Lynx maintains its $1,325 price target, the firm noted, “our view has strengthened... We believe there is significant upside to our target and our estimates.”

Investor Focus for Q4 Call

This represents a shift for Lynx, which stayed on the sidelines three months ago due to what it called “investor complacency.” The firm now sees a more favorable setup amid current “investor nervousness.”

For today's earnings call, Lynx expects Micron's management to extend its demand visibility and confirm that the current supply-demand imbalance is likely to persist into 2028 and beyond. Rajkumar concluded that the earnings call is “likely to be a catalyst for the stock to make fresh highs.”