Retailers Launch Early Sales to Capture Inflation-Wary Back-to-School Shoppers

American families, facing sustained pressure from higher food and gas prices, are starting their back-to-school shopping earlier this year in a search for value. This shift in consumer behavior has prompted major retailers, including Amazon, Walmart, and Target, to advance their promotional calendars, effectively extending the key shopping season across the summer.

Spending Habits Shift Amid Inflation

While the hunt for discounts on essential school supplies is a top priority, households are still making room in their budgets for trend-driven products. The back-to-school season, which accounted for approximately $128.2 billion in U.S. retail sales in 2025 according to the NRF, is seeing a blend of frugal and discretionary spending.

A survey by PwC found that families anticipate spending an average of $922 on back-to-school items this year. Key findings on consumer sentiment include:

• 47% of families expect to spend more than they did last year, partly reflecting higher product prices.
• Children's preferences, heavily influenced by social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram, are playing a larger role in purchasing decisions.
• About 61% of households plan to let their children add items directly to online shopping carts, according to PwC.

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Retailer Strategy and Market Implications

The unofficial kickoff for the season has become tied to major summer sales events, such as Amazon's Prime Day promotions. Retailers are using these events to compete for budget-conscious shoppers and clear inventory in categories with uneven demand, such as electronics and apparel, where discounts have been strongest, according to Adobe Analytics.

The trend toward online shopping continues to accelerate, with Amazon and Walmart positioned to benefit most. The two retail giants captured approximately 71 cents of every new dollar spent online in 2025, per Morgan Stanley research. PwC expects the share of consumers planning in-store back-to-school shopping to fall to about 70% this year, down from 79% last year.

Walmart held a four-day deals event in June featuring dorm appliances and bulk supplies, and it plans to stock basic supplies closer to the start of the school year. This later period may become a lower-margin timeframe for retailers, as the focus shifts to a "value play on the less trendy items," said Jeffrey Degner, a research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research.