Needham Tracker Shows Strongest Semi Sales Growth Since 1984, China Equipment Imports Surge

Needham's latest semiconductor industry tracker reveals accelerating momentum, highlighted by the strongest global sales growth in four decades and a significant surge in equipment spending, particularly in China. The firm's 33rd Semicap Tracker points to a tightening supply in mature-node semiconductors and a robust recovery in the memory market.

Global Sales and Memory Market Surge

Global semiconductor sales showed accelerated month-over-month growth in June, according to the report, which incorporates data through July. The 12-month moving average for sales reached 7.49%, a figure Needham noted is the highest monthly reading since the historic memory-driven upcycle of 1984.

The memory segment continues to be a primary driver of the current cycle. Key indicators include:

• DDR5 DRAM spot prices reached new all-time highs on an almost daily basis in August.
• NAND spot prices rebounded from their lows at the beginning of the month.

Needham suggested the NAND price recovery may be a factor in Lam Research’s (LRCX) recent outperformance relative to peers like Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA Corporation (KLAC).

Equipment Imports Point to Expansion

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Investment in manufacturing capacity is also on the rise. The aggregate three-month moving average of wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) imports into Korea, Taiwan, and China rose by 5% in July compared to June. While imports into Korea dipped 1% and Taiwan saw a modest 1% increase, China's imports jumped by 14% month-over-month.

Year-to-date, aggregate WFE imports into these key regions are up 14% versus the same period in 2025, signaling sustained capital expenditure. Further supporting this, silicon wafer shipments increased 7% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, now sitting just 4% below their third-quarter 2022 peak.

Analyst Outlook: Tightening Mainstream Supply

Based on these trends, Needham sees a tightening supply environment for mainstream, or mature-node, semiconductors. This view underpins the firm's maintained Buy ratings on several equipment and packaging companies, including Cohu (COHU), Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC), and BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI).

The firm also reiterated a Buy rating on Applied Materials while maintaining a Hold rating on Axcelis Technologies (ACLS). The report noted that it now incorporates TSMC CapEx data directly, following reduced disclosure from the foundry on its quarterly capital appropriations.