Morgan Stanley Downgrades Vend on Competition, Taps Scout24 as Top Pick

Morgan Stanley has downgraded Vend Marketplaces ASA due to rising competitive and execution risks, while simultaneously naming German property portal Scout24 its new 'Top Pick' in the European classifieds sector. The investment bank's analysis points to diverging paths for the two online marketplace operators.

Vend Faces Mounting Headwinds

Morgan Stanley lowered its rating on Vend to "equal-weight" from "overweight" and slashed its price target to 275 Norwegian crowns from 320 crowns. The downgrade reflects growing concerns across Vend's key business segments.

Analysts at the bank cited several challenges:

• Mobility: Execution issues in Sweden and Denmark have created friction with users and dealers. A recent price increase limited professional average revenue per account (ARPA) growth to just 3%, despite a 5% rise in car volumes.
• Jobs: The rapid advance of artificial intelligence beyond simple search and matching poses a "structural risk" and will require significant investment to remain competitive.
• Recommerce: Competitor Vinted is gaining significant traction in Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, creating uncertainty around Vend's growth and profitability in those markets.

As a result of these pressures, Morgan Stanley trimmed its FY27/28 revenue and EBITDA estimates for Vend. The bank's earnings-per-share (EPS) forecasts for the same period were reduced by 3% to 4%.

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Scout24's AI Advantage Shines

In contrast, Morgan Stanley is bullish on Scout24, setting a price target of €114, which implies a potential upside of approximately 50%. The bank highlighted that Scout24's shares have fallen about 30% over the past year, even as consensus EPS estimates for FY27 and FY28 have risen.

The positive outlook is largely driven by Scout24's successful integration of artificial intelligence to boost monetization. The bank noted that its AI-powered products, Propstack and ImmoPunkte, are already delivering results. Propstack AI users, for instance, generate an average revenue of about €340, significantly higher than the €220 from non-AI users.

Morgan Stanley projects a strong growth trajectory for Scout24 from FY26 to FY28, forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% for revenue, 14% for operating EBITDA, and 20% for EPS.