Hopes for New Boeing China Deal Fade Ahead of Presidential Summit

Hopes are fading for a new commitment from China to purchase Boeing aircraft during Thursday's summit between the U.S. and Chinese presidents. Instead, the American planemaker is focusing its efforts on finalizing a provisional deal for 200 planes announced in May, according to two people briefed on the negotiations.

Shifting Expectations

Earlier expectations for a new order of several hundred additional jets have been significantly scaled back, the sources said on condition of anonymity. The May agreement was initially viewed by Boeing as an "initial tranche" that would reopen the lucrative Chinese market, where the company had been largely shut out since 2017.

Last week, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg played down the prospect of another large order following the summit. The sentiment was echoed by industry analysts. "It will be a victory if the 200 airplane order can be saved," said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of aerospace consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory.

Broader Summit Priorities

The lack of a new aircraft deal appears linked to a crowded diplomatic agenda. According to Scott Kennedy, a China specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, brokering jetliner sales is not a top priority for this summit. U.S. and Chinese officials are reportedly more focused on extending a trade truce and discussing issues such as AI safeguards, weapons sales to Taiwan, and trade in soybeans and rare earth minerals.

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While there is still a possibility that details for part of the May deal could be announced if contracts are finalized, the broader geopolitical headwinds are evident. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Fox News on Monday that about 140 of the jetliner orders from that deal were "in a good state," with another 10 being finalized.

Competitive Landscape

The negotiations are critical for Boeing, which has lost ground to its European rival, Airbus, in one of the world's most important aviation markets. China is forecast to require around 9,000 new jets by 2045. Airbus has expanded its market share in recent years, partly due to its final assembly line in Tianjin and what one analyst called "more benign" China-Europe relations.

"Boeing has lost much of its influence in our region, partly due to politics, but mostly because of its own internal issues," said Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation consultancy Endau Analytics. Finalizing the existing 200-plane deal would represent a crucial, if smaller than once hoped, step for Boeing in re-establishing its position in the region.