Comet Shares Surge 10% on BofA Double-Upgrade Tied to NAND Boom

Shares of Comet Holding AG (SIX:COTNE) surged as much as 10% after Bank of America analysts issued a rare double-upgrade on the stock, moving their rating from Underperform directly to Buy. The bank also raised its price objective on the Swiss semiconductor equipment supplier by 81% to CHF 518 from a previous CHF 286.

The NAND Supercycle Thesis

Bank of America's bullish reassessment is rooted in an anticipated acceleration in the construction of new NAND memory fabrication plants, or "greenfield" projects. The analysts noted that Comet is uniquely positioned to benefit from this trend due to its role as a key supplier to Lam Research, a dominant provider of the etch equipment used intensively in NAND manufacturing. Over 40% of Comet's revenue is derived from Lam Research.

"NAND greenfield activity is finally picking up, with visibility increasing to next year and beyond, and Comet stands out as a NAND play with an attractive valuation, high operating leverage, and ample capacity," BofA stated in its research note. The firm identified a wave of new fab announcements from Micron, Samsung, KIOXIA, and YMTC as the primary catalysts, projecting that these projects will begin translating into revenue for Comet by 2027.

Aggressive Financial Forecasts

Following its industry analysis, Bank of America significantly lifted its financial forecasts for Comet, placing them well ahead of the market consensus. The firm's new estimates suggest the street has not fully priced in the impact of the coming NAND expansion.

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Key forecast highlights include:

• Revenue estimates for fiscal years 2026-2028 were raised by 7-18%.
• EBITDA estimates were increased by 13-57% over the same period.
• EBITDA margin is projected to nearly triple, expanding from 10% in 2025 to 26% in 2028, driven by operating leverage and a favorable product mix.
• This underpins a projected ~70% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for EBITDA through 2028.

Additional Growth Drivers

Beyond the core business, BofA highlighted additional sources of potential upside for Comet. The firm's Synertia product line is reportedly gaining order momentum and could represent over CHF 100 million in sales by 2028. Another product, the CA20, was described as offering "optionality" on the adoption of x-ray technology in advanced packaging.

The analysts also noted that Comet has sufficient production capacity to support up to CHF 1 billion in revenue by 2030, indicating that supply constraints are unlikely to hinder its growth trajectory.