China May Tap Oil Reserves, Expand Tanker Fleet to Boost Energy Security, Macquarie Says

China's state-owned refiners may start drawing from commercial oil reserves as early as the third quarter of 2026, while the nation also considers expanding its crude oil tanker fleet to bolster energy security, according to a new report from Macquarie analysts.

The analysis, which followed meetings with supply chain firms and policy experts in Beijing and Shenzhen, suggests a strategic shift in China's energy management for the second half of the year.

Tapping Strategic Inventories

Macquarie noted that no commercial reserves were released in the first half of 2026, as tighter export controls and lower refinery utilization helped rebalance the market. However, state-owned refiners could gain government approval to access low-cost inventories held by their parent companies from Q3 2026.

This move is expected to support an earnings recovery for these companies in the second half of the year. The investment bank identified Sinopec (600028) as a primary beneficiary of this potential policy shift and named it as its preferred state-owned enterprise for reform-related exposure.

VLCC Fleet Expansion and Market Impact

To strengthen the security of its crude imports, China may also expand its access to very large crude carrier (VLCC) capacity. According to Macquarie, such a move could have significant effects on the global shipping and refining markets.

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Key potential impacts include:

• Capped Freight Rates: An expanded Chinese tanker fleet could limit speculative upside in VLCC freight rates over the medium term.
• Supplier Demand: Increased demand for new tankers would likely benefit equipment suppliers such as Neway (603699) and Jiuli (002318).

Macquarie assigned a 60% probability that higher freight costs would eventually be passed through to end users. The analysts highlighted that a crucial factor will be whether China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) incorporates these higher shipping costs into its regulated gasoline and diesel pricing mechanism, which would directly affect refining margins.

Broader Energy Sector Reforms

The report also dismissed concerns that demand for China's energy storage systems (ESS) is nearing a peak as "overdone." Analysts believe that the nationwide expansion of spot-market electricity trading and the emergence of negative on-grid tariffs will improve the economic viability of ESS projects.

Macquarie stated that ongoing market reforms and stricter "dual-carbon" controls should sustain strong demand for energy storage through China's 15th Five-Year Plan. However, the proliferation of negative generation tariffs could pressure earnings for nuclear power operators like CGN (1816) and CNNP (601985).