Bitcoin's Milder Bear Market Signals Maturation, Bernstein Says

Bitcoin's recent retest of the $60,000 level represents a roughly 54% decline from its cycle peak, a downturn that analysts at Bernstein are calling a “rather comforting” sign of the market’s maturation. The leading cryptocurrency, which hit a high of about $125,000 in November 2025, has since staged a modest recovery to around $63,000.

A Shallower Correction

In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani highlighted that the current bear market has been notably less severe than previous cycles. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced corrections of 75% to 90% from its peaks.

"Although it is unclear if we are completely out of the woods... this crypto bear market has been milder than the previous drawdown," the analysts wrote. This relative stability, they argue, suggests the asset class is evolving. "Crypto feels like it’s growing up."

Shifting Market Dynamics

Several factors are contributing to the market's changing structure. While Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen significant outflows of $5.5 billion this year, buying from corporate treasury holders has provided a counterbalance.

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• Corporate Buying: Companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, along with ETFs, have brought in a net $10 billion in 2026, compared with $60 billion last year.
• Miner Selling: U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners have become net sellers as they pivot to AI data center operations. This has resulted in their share of the global hash rate declining by over 40 basis points in the last two quarters, with international miners gaining ground.
• Strategy's Stability: Bernstein noted that a forced sell-off from major corporate holder Strategy is unlikely. The firm's debt represents just 13% of its Bitcoin collateral value, and it holds 17 months of cash reserves for obligations.

Regulatory and Price Outlook

On the regulatory front, Bernstein pointed to ongoing rulemaking for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act and the potential for new products like crypto perpetual futures on U.S. platforms. The passage of the broader CLARITY Act is still considered a "coin-flip."

While remaining bullish long-term, the analysts acknowledged that their year-end price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin "appears ambitious in context of the market correction." However, they still expect the broader cycle to eventually turn positive.