Bitcoin's Milder Bear Market Signals Maturation, Bernstein Analysts Say

Bitcoin's ongoing price correction is being viewed by analysts at Bernstein as a “rather comforting” sign of market maturation, despite a recent retest of lows near $60,000. The analysis highlights that the current drawdown is significantly less severe than those seen in prior bear markets.

A Shallower Drawdown

In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani pointed out that Bitcoin has fallen roughly 54% from its cycle peak of about $125,000, which was reached in November 2025. This contrasts sharply with previous cycles, which historically experienced corrections between 75% and 90%.

"Although it is unclear if we are completely out of the woods... this crypto bear market has been milder than the previous drawdown," the analysts wrote. This relative stability suggests a potential shift in investor behavior and market structure.

Shifting Capital Flows and Miner Behavior

The report identifies several key market dynamics contributing to this resilience. While Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen outflows of $5.5 billion this year, this has been partially offset by continued buying from corporate treasuries.

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• Corporate Buying: The firm Strategy (STRC) was highlighted as a key corporate buyer, and Bernstein noted it is unlikely to become a forced seller. The company reportedly holds 17 months of cash reserves for its obligations, with its debt representing just 13% of its Bitcoin collateral's value.
• Miner Selling: U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners have become net sellers. They are increasingly pivoting their operations toward AI data centers, leading to a drop of over 40 basis points in their share of the global hash rate over the past two quarters. This has shifted mining dominance toward international operators in regions like Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Analyst Outlook

Bernstein concluded that while any correction is difficult for investors, the current environment indicates the crypto market is “growing up.” The firm remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects but acknowledged that its year-end price target of $150,000 “appears ambitious in context of the market correction.”

Progress on the regulatory front, including rulemaking for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act and the introduction of perpetual futures on U.S. platforms, was also cited as a sign of the industry's increasing maturity.