Bitcoin's Milder Bear Market a 'Comforting' Sign of Maturity, Bernstein Says

Bitcoin's current bear market, which has seen the cryptocurrency fall approximately 54% from its November 2025 peak, is a “rather comforting” development signaling a more mature market, according to research from Bernstein.

In a note to clients, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said that while Bitcoin has recently retested lows near $60,000, the current drawdown is much less severe than the 75% to 90% corrections that characterized previous market cycles. "Although it is unclear if we are completely out of the woods... this crypto bear market has been milder than the previous drawdown," the analysts wrote, concluding, "Crypto feels like it’s growing up."

Shifting Market Dynamics

Bernstein highlighted a divergence in investor behavior this year. While Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of $5.5 billion in 2026, this has been partially offset by consistent buying from corporate treasury holders.

The note specifically pointed to the company Strategy (STRC), which it says continues to be a net buyer. Bernstein analysts noted that the company has a strong financial position, with 17 months of cash reserves and debt representing just 13% of its Bitcoin collateral value, making a forced sale of its holdings "unlikely."

Ad

At the same time, U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners have become net sellers. These firms are increasingly pivoting their operations toward AI data centers, leading to a drop in their share of the global hash rate by over 40 basis points in the last two quarters, with market share shifting to international miners.

Regulatory and Price Outlook

The report also touched on the evolving U.S. regulatory landscape, citing ongoing rulemaking for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act and the introduction of crypto perpetual futures on platforms like Coinbase. The passage of the broader CLARITY Act is still considered a "coin-flip" this year, according to the firm.

While Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects, the analysts acknowledged that the current market conditions make their $150,000 year-end price target appear "ambitious." They maintain, however, that they expect the broader market cycle to eventually turn positive.