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Bernstein Upgrades Aena to 'Outperform' on Stronger Traffic and Earnings Outlook
Summary
Analysts at Bernstein have raised their rating on Spanish airport operator Aena, citing robust passenger traffic forecasts, a favorable regulatory outlook, and resilient international growth that are expected to boost medium-term earnings.
Bernstein has upgraded Spanish airport operator Aena to “outperform” from “market-perform,” increasing its price target on the stock to €30.80 from €27. The brokerage cited a stronger medium-term earnings outlook driven by expectations of higher passenger traffic, accelerating commercial revenue, and a supportive regulatory environment.
Bullish Traffic Forecasts
The upgrade is underpinned by a more optimistic view on passenger growth than both Aena's management and the market consensus. Bernstein projects that Aena's Spanish traffic will grow by 3.6% in 2026, significantly above the company's guidance of 1.3% and the consensus estimate of 2.5%.
Analysts at the firm anticipate an acceleration in passenger growth to approximately 4% through the summer, up from 2.1% in the first quarter, which they believe could prompt Aena to raise its official guidance. The brokerage also noted several supporting trends:
- A broader shift in travel flows away from the Middle East and toward Southern European leisure destinations.
- Continued strength at Aena's international assets, such as London-Luton airport, supported by capacity growth from airlines like Wizz Air.
- An upward revision of its 2026 Spanish traffic forecast by 3 million passengers to 333 million.
AdRegulatory and Cost Headwinds
Bernstein described the upcoming DORA III regulatory agreement as "benign," noting that feedback from Spain’s competition authority (CNMC) limits the potential for significant tariff cuts in 2027. While the CNMC has proposed a 7.44% pre-tax weighted average cost of capital (WACC), below Aena's 9% proposal, the framework is seen as supporting investment-led growth. A final agreement is expected in September.
However, the firm acknowledged persistent cost pressures and rising capital expenditures. Aena's average annual capex is projected to nearly triple to about €2.20 billion during the next regulatory cycle. Bernstein also flagged political risks, including a 2025 tariff freeze imposed after airline lobbying, but concluded that these headwinds are "well understood and more than offset" by the company's growth drivers. As a result, Bernstein's EBITDA estimates for Aena are 2-3% above the market consensus.