Bernstein Initiates on Chinese AI Stocks, Favoring Z.AI's Coding Focus Over MiniMax's Video Strategy

A stark divergence in strategy and stock performance between two of China's leading AI firms, Z.AI (2513.HK) and MiniMax (0100.HK), has been brought into sharp focus by new analyst ratings. In a note this week, Bernstein initiated coverage favoring Z.AI, calling it the "cleaner expression" of frontier AI research and development.

Analyst Ratings Diverge

Bernstein assigned Z.AI an Outperform rating with a price target of HK$1,350, suggesting approximately 30% upside from its current price. The bank views the company as a dominant player in coding and agentic AI, which it identifies as the segments with the largest long-term total addressable market.

In contrast, MiniMax received a Market-Perform rating from Bernstein with a HK$275 price target. This cautious stance is amplified by JPMorgan, which holds a Neutral rating and a HK$160 price target on the stock, implying a potential downside of over 35%. Analysts cite concerns about the revenue potential of MiniMax's video-focused models and the competitiveness of its upcoming product line.

Z.AI's Monetization and Volatility

Z.AI has seen its stock surge +767.5% year-to-date, though it remains about 65% below its 52-week high. The market responded positively to the company's recent launch of paid subscriptions for its GLM coding plan on July 31, a key step toward monetization that sent shares up nearly 20% on the day.

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Bernstein highlighted the upcoming GLM-5.3 and next-generation models as near-term catalysts. However, the stock's significant run-up and recent volatility, including a -41.9% decline in the past month, suggest a thin margin of safety for new investors.

MiniMax's High-Stakes Video Bet

MiniMax is concentrating on multimodal video AI, recently launching its H3 model capable of generating 2K video at a significantly lower cost than competitors. While this drove a temporary share price increase, analysts question the long-term strategy. Bernstein noted that its upcoming M3 Pro model is a "make-or-break" moment for the company.

The company faces intense competition from rivals like Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek. Despite a more modest +7.8% year-to-date performance, MiniMax shares are trading more than 80% off their 52-week peak, reflecting significant market skepticism about its path forward.