AI Shopping Agents to Boost Visa and Mastercard, Not Disrupt Them, Bernstein Says

The rise of AI-powered “agentic commerce,” highlighted by new shopping tools from Meta and Anthropic, is poised to benefit established payment networks like Visa and Mastercard rather than disrupt them, according to a new analysis from Bernstein. While still a nascent field accounting for less than 1% of all e-commerce, the technology promises to automate complex consumer tasks like booking travel and shopping online.

New AI Tools Enter the Market

Recent developments include Meta's launch of Muse, a personal AI agent designed to autonomously handle multistep tasks, and Anthropic's release of Commerce Agents, an open-source framework for companies to build their own shopping agents. These launches come as other major tech firms take different approaches; OpenAI reportedly abandoned its own instant checkout feature, while Google has focused on infrastructure rather than controlling agentic payments.

Payments Networks Seen as Key Beneficiaries

Contrary to concerns that agentic commerce could disintermediate traditional payment giants, Bernstein analysts argue “it’s very much the opposite.” They project the trend will drive more digitization, higher transaction volumes, and increased demand for value-added services, ultimately benefiting the incumbent networks. The firm asserts that cards are set to remain the preferred payment method in this new ecosystem.

Key factors supporting the dominance of card networks include:

• Established infrastructure for dispute management and security standards.
• A massive existing network of over 7 billion credentials and more than 100 million merchants.
• A lack of interest from new AI agents in controlling merchant payments, instead opting for frictionless solutions like single-use virtual cards.

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Bernstein's note states that any entity attempting to bypass card networks for agentic payments is “likely doomed.”

Industry Prepares for an Agentic Future

Visa and Mastercard are proactively developing their own standards and protocols for this new environment, including Trusted Agent Protocol and Agent Pay. Bernstein forecasts that 100% of agentic transactions will be tokenized, a security method heavily championed by the card networks. This shift also creates opportunities for payment processors, as merchants will face new complexities.

Adyen, for example, launched Adyen Agentic this summer to help enterprise clients sell through various AI platforms without overhauling their existing commerce systems. Bernstein rates Visa, Mastercard, and Adyen as “Outperform.”

Nascent Market Faces Trust Hurdles

Despite the technological advancements, consumer adoption and trust remain significant obstacles. A Visa survey cited by Bernstein found that only 23% of consumers currently trust AI agents to conduct payment transactions on their behalf. While generative AI is driving more referral traffic to major retailers—accounting for 39% of referrals for Wayfair and 28% for Walmart as of August 2026—this traffic still represents only 1-2% of their total site traffic.