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AI-Driven Retail Traffic to Surge 130% This Holiday Season, Adobe Forecasts
Summary
Adobe projects a 130% increase in AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites this holiday season, signaling a major shift in consumer behavior as growth from traditional paid search slows to just 4%.
Artificial intelligence is set to reshape how consumers discover products this holiday season, with AI-driven referral traffic to U.S. retail websites expected to surge by 130%, according to a new forecast from Adobe. This dramatic rise significantly outpaces growth from traditional digital marketing channels, signaling a fundamental shift in online shopping behavior.
A New Era of Product Discovery
Adobe's report highlights a stark contrast between emerging and established traffic sources. While AI-referred traffic is poised for explosive growth, paid search is forecast to grow by just 4%. Traffic from social media is expected to see a more moderate increase of 17%.
The forecast indicates that shoppers are increasingly turning to AI tools for product research and comparison. A July Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers found that 77% of those who used AI for online shopping reported increased confidence in their purchases, and 69% said it made them less likely to return items.
Holiday Spending to Hit Record Highs
Despite the shift in traffic sources, overall online spending is projected to remain robust. Adobe forecasts total U.S. online holiday sales from November 1 through December 31 to reach $275.1 billion, a 6.7% increase from the previous year.
AdKey shopping events are expected to drive a significant portion of this spending:
- Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) is projected to generate $47.5 billion, up 7.4% year-over-year.
- Cyber Monday will remain the largest single online shopping day, with sales forecast at $15.1 billion (+6.2%).
- Black Friday sales are expected to grow at a faster pace, rising 9.2% to $12.9 billion.
Mobile and BNPL Trends Continue
The report also underscores the continued dominance of mobile commerce and flexible payment options. Mobile devices are expected to account for a majority (57.4%) of all online spending during the holiday period. Spending via Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services is forecast to reach $21.3 billion in November and December, a 6.6% increase.
Retailers are expected to offer deep discounts to attract consumers, with price cuts peaking at approximately 30% below listed prices during Cyber Week. Electronics, apparel, and furniture are forecast to be the top-selling categories by revenue.
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