Copper Prices Could Surge to $22,050 by 2027 on Stockpiling, Deutsche Bank Says

Copper prices could surge to $10 per pound, or $22,050 per ton, by the second quarter of 2027, representing a nearly 50% increase from current levels, according to a new forecast from Deutsche Bank. The projection is based on accelerating stockpiling activities by the United States and China, which are tightening the global supply of the essential industrial metal.

Stockpiling Drives Scarcity Fears

The primary driver behind the bullish forecast is the strategic accumulation of copper by the world's two largest economies. Deutsche Bank estimates that by the end of this year, the U.S. and China could collectively hold 71% of the world's copper supply.

China has been building its strategic reserves for decades, but the recent trend has been amplified by U.S. actions. According to the brokerage, the threat of potential U.S. tariffs on copper imports is prompting a significant flow of the metal into American warehouses. The analysis warns that if these stockpiling trends continue unabated, copper may become unavailable for other global users by the end of 2028.

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Market Dynamics and Substitution Effects

Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect that such a severe scarcity scenario will ultimately be avoided. They anticipate that soaring prices will eventually compel some industrial users to switch from copper to aluminum, which is a cheaper, albeit less efficient, electrical conductor.

However, the bank noted that current copper prices are not yet high enough to trigger this kind of widespread substitution. Furthermore, market dynamics in the U.S. could keep supply locked within the country even if tariffs are not imposed. U.S. copper futures are trading at a premium to London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, which could incentivize keeping the metal in LME's U.S.-based warehouses rather than exporting it.