US to Remain Reliant on Chinese Rare Earths Into 2030s, Analysis Shows

The United States will remain reliant on China for rare earth minerals well into the 2030s, a significant strategic vulnerability that looms over upcoming talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Even with a rapid expansion of domestic mining and processing, the U.S. will struggle to achieve self-sufficiency for these materials, which are vital for defense, automotive, and technology sectors.

The Supply-Demand Imbalance

According to data from the consulting firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, U.S. output of the two most-used rare earths has more than tripled since last year, yet the country can only meet 42% of its own demand. The analysis projects that within five years, the U.S. will still need to import nearly a quarter of its supply.

This gap makes the White House's goal of blocking Chinese rare earth imports by January 2027 appear all but impossible to achieve. The immediate focus of the presidential meeting will be a potential extension of delayed Chinese export restrictions, which are currently set to begin on November 10.

China's Processing Dominance

China's primary leverage comes not just from mining but from its overwhelming dominance in the complex processing stage, which involves separating the 17 rare earth elements from each other. The U.S. has particularly little capacity for processing so-called heavy rare earths, which are essential for military applications.

"The more realistic objective is to build a meaningful alternative supply chain that can protect strategic sectors during periods of geopolitical disruption," said Coco Zhang, an analyst at ING. Todd Downing, a minerals analyst at consultancy Project Blue, added that "replacing Chinese supply across the full value chain is much more difficult" for Western nations.

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Domestic Onshoring Efforts Advance

Washington has poured billions of dollars into companies like MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, and Energy Fuels to accelerate the onshoring of a domestic supply chain. These investments are yielding results, though analysts caution it is just the beginning.

Recent milestones include:

• MP Materials began delivering magnets made from its refined rare earths to General Motors.
• USA Rare Earth acquired a Brazilian mine and a French processing plant.
• Startup Nth Cycle signed a $1 billion supply agreement with mining giant Glencore.

"Rare earths domestic onshoring is moving forward," said Tim Moore, a rare earths analyst at Clear Street. "It’s early innings, but it’s happening."