SpaceX Stock Faces $123 Billion Lockup Expiry After Post-IPO Slump

Shares of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) have struggled since the company's public debut, and now face a significant technical headwind as a massive post-IPO lockup period is set to expire. The stock was trading at $121.30 on Monday, over 10% below its $135 initial public offering price from June 11, 2026, creating a challenging backdrop for the impending release of shares held by insiders.

A Volatile Debut

In the six weeks since its IPO, SpaceX has seen considerable volatility, with its stock falling 46% from an all-time high of $225.64. At its current market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, the company trades at a steep valuation of 49 times expected revenue, according to InvestingPro data. The data also indicates the company is not yet profitable on a trailing twelve-month basis, a metric that can make high-growth stocks vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment.

The $123 Billion Overhang

The most critical event for investors is the upcoming lockup expiration, scheduled for early August 2026. Per the company's IPO filings, the event will unfold in two potential stages:

• An unconditional release of 911.5 million shares, valued at approximately $123 billion at current prices, will occur on the second trading day after SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report.
• A second tranche of 455.8 million shares would only unlock if the stock maintained a price above $175.50, a trigger that appears highly unlikely given the recent performance.

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This flood of new supply could exert significant downward pressure on the stock price as early investors and employees gain their first opportunity to sell shares on the open market. A Reuters analysis of 50 major U.S. IPOs since 2010 found that stocks trading below their issue price in the first two months tended to have weaker long-term returns.

Analyst Outlook and Near-Term Catalysts

Despite the near-term risks, some analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook. Wells Fargo recently initiated coverage on SpaceX with an "Overweight" rating and a $230 price target, implying roughly 90% upside. The bank's thesis is based on the multi-year potential of Starship's reusability to revolutionize orbital launch economics by 2031. Separately, filings show that ARK Invest has been accumulating a position in the stock.

Before the lockup expires, the market is watching for a potential short-term catalyst in Starship's 13th test flight, targeted for July 24. While a successful launch could provide a temporary lift, analysts note that any rally may be tempered by the looming lockup expiration.