SpaceX Shares Fall Despite Revenue Beat as AI Spending and Lock-Up Expiration Spook Investors

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (ticker: SPCX) fell 7.6% in after-hours trading following the company's inaugural earnings report as a public company. While SpaceX surpassed revenue expectations, investors focused on surging capital expenditures and an impending share lock-up expiration, sending the stock toward its 52-week low.

Spending Concerns Overshadow Revenue Beat

For its second quarter, SpaceX posted revenue of $7.81 billion, comfortably beating analyst consensus estimates of approximately $6.93 billion. The company also narrowed its net loss to $541 million from $1 billion in the same period a year earlier.

However, the strong top-line performance was eclipsed by capital expenditures that reached $18.4 billion, a figure more than six times the level from the prior year and significantly higher than the market's expectation of $13.2 billion. Of that total, $15.8 billion was allocated to AI infrastructure, including the buildout of its Colossus II compute platform.

The absence of formal financial guidance left investors uncertain about when the aggressive spending would translate into positive free cash flow. While the CFO noted on the earnings call that SpaceX is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year-end, the market reacted negatively to the scale of the current cash burn.

Imminent Lock-Up Expiration Adds Pressure

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A second major factor weighing on the stock is the upcoming expiration of the post-IPO lock-up period on August 6. This event will make a substantial number of insider-held shares eligible for sale for the first time.

Key details of the lock-up expiration include:

• Shares eligible for sale: Approximately 911.5 million
• Significance: Represents roughly 20% of the shares subject to the standard lock-up.
• Market Impact: The potential influx of new supply is a significant concern for investors, especially as SpaceX’s public float currently represents only about 4% to 5% of its total shares outstanding.

The combination of heavy spending and the prospect of a large volume of shares hitting the market created a confluence of selling pressure. The stock's decline was a company-specific event, as the broader S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day with modest gains.