Saudi Pipeline Outage Could Trigger 6 Million BPD Oil Deficit, HSBC Warns

A crucial Saudi Arabian oil pipeline is expected to be mostly offline for three to five weeks for repairs, a development that could temporarily tip the global oil market into its largest supply deficit since the start of the recent Middle East conflict, according to an analysis by HSBC.

Pipeline Outage Deepens Supply Concerns

Analysts at HSBC, led by Kim Fustier, said the extended outage of Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pipeline represents a "negative surprise" for the market. The pipeline is a key bypass route allowing crude shipments from the Gulf to the Red Sea, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Its disruption removes a critical cushion that was expected to absorb shocks from regional instability.

The shutdown is projected to result in a supply loss of 90 million barrels over one month. This comes as Saudi oil exports from its West Coast had already declined to 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, down from a typical 4-4.5 million bpd, due to regional threats, the report noted.

A 6 Million BPD Deficit Looms

HSBC forecasts that the global oil market could face a temporary deficit of roughly 6 million bpd during the disruption window from mid-September to mid-October. The analysts described this as "the largest implied deficit since the start of the conflict," amplifying the impact of more than 500 million barrels in cumulative inventory draws since February.

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The bank also highlighted that the Middle East supply shock is the primary driver of current tightness in refined products, not Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries as some have suggested. HSBC noted that product loadings from inside the Gulf have already fallen by 3.4 million bpd, including 2.1 million bpd of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

Price Risks and Key Indicators

The pipeline disruption increases the upside risk to oil prices, according to HSBC. The analysts stated it raises the probability of their more bearish "Stalemate" scenario, under which Brent crude prices could potentially rise to $120 per barrel.

However, the report also expressed a key uncertainty, noting that Saudi Aramco has a strong track record of completing repairs quickly. Investors and market watchers are advised to monitor several key indicators for further direction:

• Any signs of a partial or early restart of the pipeline.
• Loading patterns at the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
• The pace of global oil inventory draws in the coming weeks.