Ryanair Plans to Double Baltic Passenger Traffic as Rival airBaltic Enters Bankruptcy

Ryanair announced on Thursday an ambitious plan to double its passenger numbers in the Baltic region over the next five years, a strategic move designed to capture market share following the bankruptcy filing of regional carrier airBaltic.

Europe's largest airline by passenger volume said it aims to offer 11 million annual seats across Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania by 2031. To support this growth, the carrier will more than double its locally based fleet, increasing the number of aircraft from seven to 16.

Seizing a Market Opportunity

The expansion directly follows the struggles of airBaltic, which filed for bankruptcy protection earlier this week. The source material identified the Latvian carrier as the first European airline to seek such protection due to fallout from the Iran conflict. Ryanair's Chief Commercial Officer, Jason McGuinness, noted the significance of the timing in a statement.

"This proposal is even more important following airBaltic’s announcement that it will shrink its fleet by one-third," McGuinness said. AirBaltic had previously announced in August that it would reduce its fleet from 54 aircraft to 36 by the end of 2026, a sharp reversal from a previous target of 100 aircraft.

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Strategic Capacity Shifts

Ryanair's expansion in the Baltics is nuanced and directly tied to airport costs. The airline plans to add winter flights on 10 routes from Riga, Latvia—including to Milan, Alicante, and Barcelona—following a reduction in local airport charges.

Conversely, Ryanair will cut its winter capacity by 25% in Lithuania and Estonia, citing increased airport charges in those countries. The airline stated that this capacity will be reallocated to markets with lower operating costs, such as Slovakia, Poland, Italy, and Sweden.

This regional push is part of Ryanair's broader corporate strategy to grow its annual passenger traffic from 208 million in fiscal 2026 to 300 million by 2034. The airline's long-term growth will be facilitated by the delivery of 300 new Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft, scheduled to begin in 2027.