HelloFresh Slashes 2026 Forecast After Marketing Cuts Dampen Customer Growth

HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFGG) has significantly lowered its full-year revenue and profit guidance, citing a sharper-than-planned reduction in marketing expenditures that hampered new customer growth during the critical back-to-school season.

The German meal-kit company announced the revised outlook after markets closed on Thursday, signaling a more challenging environment than previously anticipated.

Revised Outlook in Detail

HelloFresh provided new forecasts for the full year and the third quarter that fell below both its previous guidance and analyst consensus estimates. The company now expects a much steeper decline in annual sales and a notable reduction in profitability.

Key revisions to its full-year 2026 guidance include:

• Revenue: A decline of 9% to 11% in constant currency, a sharp revision from the previous forecast for a decline at the bottom end of a 3% to 6% range.
• Adjusted EBITDA: A new forecast between €350 million and €370 million, down from a prior range of €375 million to €425 million.

For the third quarter, the company anticipates revenue to fall 11% to 12% year-on-year, well below the consensus estimate of a 6.8% decline. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter is projected to be between €45 million and €55 million, also missing the €57.2 million consensus.

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Marketing Pullback Blamed

HelloFresh attributed the weaker performance primarily to the scale of its marketing cuts in the third quarter. The company stated that the year-on-year reduction in spending was larger than in the first half of the year.

This pullback limited the company's ability to attract new subscribers during the important back-to-school period, a key campaign season for customer acquisition in the meal-kit industry.

Context for Investors

The guidance cut follows a second quarter where HelloFresh had already signaled weakening demand, reporting a 7.8% drop in constant-currency revenue and guiding investors toward the lower end of its previous annual forecast.

For investors, the announcement highlights the challenge meal-kit companies face in balancing profitability with the high marketing costs required for customer acquisition. The decision to reduce spending has directly impacted top-line growth, raising questions about the company's strategy in a competitive market. HelloFresh is scheduled to publish its final third-quarter results on November 5.