CN and CPKC Rail Traffic Volumes Surpass Q3 Analyst Estimates

Canadian National Railway (TSE:CNR) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSE:CP) are on track to exceed third-quarter traffic estimates, with volumes supported by robust demand in key commodity and industrial segments, according to a research note from Raymond James.

With just one week remaining in the quarter, the data indicates a healthier-than-anticipated period for North American rail transport.

Quarter-to-Date Performance Beats Forecasts

Raymond James reported that quarter-to-date (QTD) traffic for both railways is pacing significantly ahead of its forecasts. The firm's analysis shows:

• Canadian National (CN): QTD traffic is up 4.6%, compared to the Raymond James estimate of 3.1%.
• Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC): QTD traffic has improved by 6.4%, well above the analyst forecast of 4.1%.

This outperformance suggests resilient demand for rail services despite mixed economic signals. The most recent weekly data showed continued year-over-year growth, with CN traffic up 0.7% and CPKC up 7.6%.

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Segment-Specific Drivers and Drags

CN's growth was primarily driven by strong momentum in its automotive (+22.8%), grain (+15.7%), and metals and minerals (+5.6%) segments. However, this strength was partially offset by year-over-year declines in coal (-3.7%), forestry (-3.6%), and intermodal (-2.3%) traffic.

For CPKC, the top-performing categories were grain (+24.2%), intermodal (+10.1%), and metals and minerals (+9.1%). The railway saw continued weakness in shipments of coal (-12.8%), fertilizers (-10.1%), and potash (-7.1%).

Outlook

While the Q3 results appear strong, Raymond James cautioned that the outlook may become more challenging. The firm noted that year-over-year comparisons for traffic volumes are likely to become more difficult for the railways as they head into the fourth quarter of 2026.