Bitcoin's Milder Bear Market a Sign of Maturing Market, Bernstein Says

Bitcoin's recent price correction, while significant, has been notably less severe than in previous cycles, leading analysts at Bernstein to call the downturn a “rather comforting” sign of a maturing market. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen approximately 54% from its November 2025 cycle peak of about $125,000, recently retesting lows near $60,000 before a modest recovery.

A Shallower Drawdown

In a research note, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani highlighted that the current bear market is structurally different from its predecessors, which typically saw corrections of 75% to 90%. “Although it is unclear if we are completely out of the woods... this crypto bear market has been milder than the previous drawdown,” the analysts wrote.

This relative stability suggests a more resilient market structure. The analysts concluded that while “any crypto correction is painful, this one has been rather comforting,” adding that “Crypto feels like it’s growing up.”

Shifting Market Dynamics

Bernstein's analysis points to a changing landscape of buyers and sellers that is contributing to the market's behavior. Key shifts include:

Ad

• ETF Outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced $5.5 billion in net outflows so far in 2026 from a total asset base of $74 billion.
• Corporate Buying: These outflows have been partially offset by continued buying from corporate treasuries. The note specifically cited MicroStrategy (referred to as Strategy in the source) as a key net buyer, stating it is unlikely to become a source of forced selling.
• Miner Selling: U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners have transitioned to become net sellers. This shift comes as they pivot operations toward AI data centers, ceding market share to international miners. According to Bernstein, U.S. miners' share of the global hash rate has fallen by over 40 basis points in the last two quarters.

Outlook and Regulatory Context

Despite the ongoing correction, Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. However, the firm acknowledged that its $150,000 year-end price target “appears ambitious in context of the market correction,” while maintaining its expectation for the broader cycle to eventually turn positive.

The analysts also noted ongoing regulatory developments in the U.S., including rulemaking for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act and the introduction of crypto perpetual futures on regulated platforms. They view the potential passage of the broader CLARITY Act this year as a “coin-flip.”