Bitcoin Scarcity Now Double That of Gold Following Halving, Study Finds

A new study by digital asset service crypto4me concludes that Bitcoin has become approximately twice as scarce as gold when measured by the stock-to-flow ratio. This significant shift follows the 2024 Bitcoin halving, an event that programmatically reduced the rate at which new bitcoins are created.

Key Findings on Scarcity

The report, titled "Scarcity: Algorithm vs. Natural Reserves," focuses on the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio, a metric that compares an asset's total existing supply (stock) to its annual production (flow). A higher S2F ratio suggests a greater resistance to supply inflation, making an asset theoretically "harder."

According to the analysis, which cites data from the World Gold Council and the U.S. Geological Survey, the key figures are:

• Bitcoin's S2F ratio is now approximately 120.
• Gold's S2F ratio stands at roughly 59.

The 2024 Halving Crossover

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The study identifies the 2024 halving as the pivotal moment when Bitcoin's scarcity measure surpassed that of the precious metal. Before the event, both assets had a similar S2F ratio of nearly 60. After the halving cut new Bitcoin issuance in half, its ratio effectively doubled while gold's annual output remained relatively constant.

The report projects that if this programmed schedule continues, the next halving, expected in 2028, could push Bitcoin's scarcity to approximately four times that of gold.

Context and Limitations

Notably, the crypto4me study dedicates a section to the limitations of its own headline metric. The authors state plainly that the S2F ratio does not predict price, referencing the popular "S2F price model" that failed to hold up after 2021.

The report cautions that being "harder to inflate is not the same as worth more or safer," separating the concept of supply scarcity from an asset's market value or volatility. The study was released by crypto4me, a service operated by the EU MiCA-regulated firm Madison Six, to mark the annual "Bitcoin Infinity Day" on August 21.