Bitcoin Bear Market Shows Signs of Maturity, Bernstein Analysts Say

Bitcoin's current bear market, which has seen the cryptocurrency fall approximately 54% from its cycle peak, is being viewed by some analysts as a sign of a maturing market. In a recent note, analysts at Bernstein led by Gautam Chhugani described the correction as "rather comforting," highlighting that it is notably shallower than the 75% to 90% drawdowns seen in previous cycles.

The leading cryptocurrency recently retested lows near $60,000 before recovering to around $63,000. This is down from a peak of about $125,000 reached in November 2025, according to the report. While acknowledging the uncertainty, Bernstein stated, "this crypto bear market has been milder than the previous drawdown... Crypto feels like it’s growing up."

Shifting Market Dynamics

The analysis points to a changing composition of market participants influencing price stability. While Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced $5.5 billion in outflows this year from a $74 billion asset base, buying from corporate treasury holders has helped offset the selling pressure.

Notably, the firm Strategy (STRC) continues to be a net buyer and is considered an unlikely source of forced selling. Bernstein reports the company holds 17 months of cash reserves to cover obligations, with its debt representing just 13% of its Bitcoin collateral value. In contrast, U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners have become net sellers as they shift focus toward AI data center operations, ceding global hash rate share to international competitors.

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Regulatory and Price Outlook

On the regulatory front, Bernstein highlighted several ongoing developments in the U.S., including:

• Continued rulemaking for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act.
• The rollout of crypto perpetual futures on platforms like Kalshi and Coinbase.
• The passage of the CLARITY Act, which is still considered a "coin-flip."

Despite the recent correction, Bernstein remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. However, the analysts conceded that their year-end price target of $150,000 now "appears ambitious in context of the market correction," while still expecting the broader cycle to eventually recover.