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Back-to-School Spending to Fall 6% Amid Economic Pessimism, Deloitte Reports
Summary
A new Deloitte survey projects U.S. back-to-school spending will drop 6% on an inflation-adjusted basis to $557 per student, as a majority of consumers expect the economy to worsen.
U.S. back-to-school spending is expected to decline by approximately 6% on an inflation-adjusted basis this year, as mounting economic uncertainty weighs on consumer confidence, according to a new survey from Deloitte.
The consulting firm's report, released Thursday, signals a challenging season for retailers who rely on this key shopping period, which the National Retail Federation valued at $128.2 billion in 2025.
Key Projections and Consumer Worries
Deloitte projects total spending for K-12 students will reach $30.4 billion, or an average of $557 per student. This marks a decrease from last year's $570 average and reflects a souring economic outlook among households.
The survey found that 57% of consumers believe the economy will worsen in the next six months, the highest level of pessimism recorded since 2020. This sentiment is directly impacting purchasing decisions for the upcoming school year.
Shifting Spending Habits
The report indicates a significant shift in household budgeting priorities. Families are expected to prioritize necessities while delaying or reducing spending in other categories.
AdKey behavioral changes include:
- Focusing on essential items like clothing over discretionary technology purchases.
- Cutting back on other expenses, such as dining out and entertainment, to afford school supplies.
- Delaying shopping until closer to the start of the school year to manage cash flow.
Market Context and Contrasting Views
Despite the overall trend toward caution, Deloitte identified a segment of "hyper value-seekers," representing about a third of K-12 parents, who are expected to spend 14% more than other shoppers as they hunt for deals.
"We see parents approach back-to-school shopping with intent. They tend to be more thoughtful about their spending and value-seeking strategies to help maximize their wallets," said Brian McCarthy, principal of retail strategy at Deloitte Consulting.
The Deloitte forecast contrasts with a more optimistic projection from PwC, which recently estimated families will spend an average of about $922 this year. The Deloitte survey was conducted online between May 22 and May 29, polling 1,207 parents with at least one child in grades K-12.