Affirm Could Surpass $200 a Share in Bull Case, Mizuho Analyst Says

A Mizuho analyst on Thursday presented a bull-case scenario in which shares of Affirm (AFRM) could surge past $200, arguing that the market consensus is significantly undervaluing the buy-now-pay-later firm's future earnings power. The stock was trading around $71.12 at the time of the note's publication.

Underestimated Earnings Power

In a research note, Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev stated that the "consensus is grossly underestimating AFRM's long-term earnings power." While maintaining an official Outperform rating and a $100 price target on the stock, Dolev's more optimistic model projects Affirm could generate well over $10 in GAAP earnings per share (EPS) by 2030.

This forecast is roughly double the current consensus estimate and substantially higher than the company's own guidance of $3 to $4 in EPS, which was provided during its 2026 analyst day, according to the note.

Key Growth Drivers

Dolev identified three primary factors that could drive this significant outperformance:

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• Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): The analyst sees potential for up to 50% upside to GMV, driven by the momentum of Affirm's payment card and broader network effects. This factor alone could contribute an additional $4 to EPS.
• Revenue and Costs: A favorable product mix and the potential acquisition of a bank license could boost the company's revenue less transaction costs.
• Agentic Commerce: Dolev highlighted the rise of AI-powered shopping agents, which would transact on behalf of consumers. He argued that a "rational, tireless AI robot shopper will optimize on price and systematically favor 0% APR checkout," directly benefiting Affirm's core offering.

Path to a $200 Valuation

To arrive at the $200-plus valuation, the Mizuho note analyzed a peer group of over 700 companies with market capitalizations above $10 billion and expected two-year EPS growth exceeding 50%. This group trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 23x to 24x.

Applying that multiple to a present value of approximately $9 in 2028 EPS, Dolev's model suggests a potential share price "north of $200." This presents a significant upside from both the current trading price and the analyst's official price target.