Stripe and Advent's $53B Bid for PayPal Seen as 'Too Low' by Wall Street

A consortium including payments giant Stripe and private equity firm Advent International has tabled a $53 billion takeover offer for PayPal (PYPL), but the market is signaling that the initial price is not enough. The joint bid, priced at $60.50 per share, has sent PayPal's stock surging, yet it continues to trade at a notable discount, reflecting investor skepticism that the deal will close at its current terms.

The Proposed Transaction

The offer represents a roughly 28% premium to PayPal's closing price before the news broke. According to the proposal, Stripe and Advent would take a 50/50 stake in the payments company, with no plans to break up its assets. The bid is supported by approximately $50 billion in committed bank financing.

CNBC also reported that Block could potentially join the consortium as an equity contributor. Following the announcement on July 15, PayPal shares jumped over 20%. However, the stock's current price of $56.77 remains well below the offer, indicating that the market is pricing in significant risk that the deal either fails or will require a higher bid to succeed.

Analyst Consensus: An Opening Move

The prevailing view among Wall Street analysts is that the $60.50 offer is a starting point for negotiations rather than a final price. The sentiment is that PayPal's board is unlikely to accept the initial terms.

Ad

• Cantor Fitzgerald suggested a sum-of-the-parts valuation implies a fair price is closer to $70 per share.
• William Blair analysts stated they do not expect PayPal's CEO to accept the current bid, viewing a potential $70 price as possible but having a low probability.
• Investor Michael Burry called the bid "simply too low," placing his intrinsic value for PayPal between $75–$80 in a conservative scenario and arguing a final bid would need to be near $100 to include a standard control premium.

Strategic Logic and Next Steps

For Stripe, the acquisition offers a path to immense scale, immediately adding PayPal's 439 million active accounts and Braintree's approximately $700 billion in payment volume. However, analysts at William Blair noted that absorbing PayPal could dilute Stripe's own 34% volume growth seen in 2025 and potentially compress its margins.

The focus now shifts to PayPal's upcoming board meeting on July 20. Analysts at Clear Street noted that the news leak ahead of the meeting could pressure the board to formally engage with the bidders. The spread between PayPal's market price and the offer price serves as a live indicator of the market's confidence, currently pricing in a roughly 60-65% chance of the deal's completion at the proposed price.