Diamond Cooling Solutions Nearing Industrial Scale-Up Amid AI Chip Power Surge, CITIC Says

The market for diamond-based thermal management solutions is poised to enter its first year of industrialization in 2026, driven by the soaring power demands of artificial intelligence chips and limitations of traditional cooling methods, according to a new research report from CITIC Securities.

The AI Heat Problem

The rapid evolution of AI accelerators is creating an acute thermal challenge. Analysts at CITIC point to the steep power consumption curve of high-performance GPUs, noting that power draw is projected to climb from 700W for Nvidia's Hopper series to 1,200W for Blackwell and approximately 1,800W for the upcoming Rubin architecture. Future generations could reach as high as 4,400W, a more than six-fold increase in just a few years.

This intense power usage results in localized heat flux densities that are expected to surpass 1,000W/cm². Traditional heat-dissipating materials like copper, with a thermal conductivity of about 400 W/(m·K), are approaching their physical limits. Diamond, by contrast, offers a thermal conductivity of 2,000-2,200 W/(m·K), making it a compelling alternative for next-generation thermal management.

Market Projections and Industry Shift

CITIC Securities projects a significant market opportunity as diamond-based components—such as heat spreaders, heat sinks, and cold plates—begin to replace metal in AI servers and optical modules. The report estimates the global market for diamond thermal solutions could reach RMB 115 billion (approximately $15.8 billion) by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 143% from 2027 to 2030.

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This trend also marks a value shift within the synthetic diamond industry. While China produces about 90% of the world's man-made diamonds by volume, the value is increasingly migrating from lower-cost industrial abrasives to high-performance functional applications like thermal management.

Competitive Landscape and Challenges

The industry currently faces two primary hurdles: cost and manufacturing complexity. The price of CVD (Chemical Vapor Deposition) diamond heat sinks remains an order of magnitude higher than copper or aluminum alternatives. Key areas for cost reduction include equipment depreciation and energy consumption during the growth process.

Technological challenges also persist, particularly in developing large-chamber manufacturing equipment and mastering bonding processes to minimize thermal boundary resistance (TBR). According to the report, the competitive landscape is led by UK-based Element Six, with a dynamic of competition and cooperation among players in China, Japan, and the U.S. While international firms are seen as leading in single-crystal diamond and TBR control, Chinese manufacturers are leveraging advantages in polycrystalline capacity and lower energy costs to close the gap.