Strategy's Bitcoin Policy Shift Creates Market Uncertainty, Standard Chartered Says

A shift in the Bitcoin holding strategy of Strategy, the largest corporate owner of the cryptocurrency, is creating near-term market uncertainty, according to an analyst note from Standard Chartered. The bank, however, maintained its bullish year-end forecast, suggesting the current price weakness is a temporary reaction.

A Pivot from 'Never Sell'

In a note to investors, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick highlighted that Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, "appears to be pivoting from its 'never sell Bitcoin' mantra to a more complex approach." Strategy is the most significant corporate holder of the digital asset, with 843,775 coins, representing more than 4% of the maximum 21 million bitcoins that will ever be in circulation.

This change in tone from a key market participant is introducing what the bank describes as "noise" for Bitcoin's price in the short term. Investors are now seeking clarity on the company's long-term intentions for its vast holdings.

New Approach to Collateralization

The strategic shift is reportedly driven by a decline in the company's mNAV metric, which measures its enterprise value relative to its Bitcoin holdings. According to the note, this ratio has fallen to approximately 1.0, making the previous model of issuing shares to acquire more Bitcoin less effective.

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Standard Chartered said Strategy is now moving toward using its Bitcoin as backing for its preferred stock, STRC. Kendrick noted that the STRC series, with roughly $10 billion in notional value outstanding, is "heavily over-collateralised" and should recover from its current trading price of around $90 back to $100.

Market Impact and Outlook

Kendrick stated that effective communication from Strategy about its new approach is "key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely." He added that if this messaging is successful, it could "remove the need for MSTR to actually sell any BTC."

Despite the short-term uncertainty, Standard Chartered views the recent price weakness as a market overreaction rather than a fundamental change in the medium-term outlook. The bank reiterated its end-of-2026 price forecast for Bitcoin at $100,000.