Iran-Linked Vessel Traffic Spikes in Strait of Hormuz Ahead of US Blockade

A significant number of vessels, primarily associated with Iranian trade, passed through the critical Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, according to shipping data, in a final push before a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports was implemented on Wednesday.

A Flurry of Activity

Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed that of the 11 vessels that transited the strait on Tuesday, nine sailed via the Iranian route. The movements suggest an effort to position assets and export goods ahead of the U.S. enforcement action.

Key vessel movements included:

• Three empty oil tankers entering the strait: one Aframax-sized vessel and two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs).
• Six laden vessels exiting the strait with Iranian exports, including a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels of crude, tankers with refined products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a methanol tanker, and a dry bulk carrier with iron ore.

The data, as reported by Reuters, indicated no visible entries or exits for tankers loading from other Gulf producers on Tuesday.

Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

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The increased traffic comes as the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on all Iranian ports. The move is the latest escalation in a conflict that has intensified this week, leading to a sharp slowdown in overall shipping through the strait, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

The United States said late on Tuesday that Iran had attacked seven commercial ships over the past week, resulting in casualties among crew members. These attacks have heightened risk premiums for shipping in the region.

Market Impact

Recent attacks on supertankers have already pushed Middle East spot crude prices higher, creating a market structure where prompt-month prices are more expensive than those for future delivery. This condition, known as backwardation, typically signals tight immediate supplies.

In a note on Wednesday, analysts at Goldman Sachs suggested that the recovery in shipping volumes through the Gulf could be slow, even if the geopolitical situation de-escalates. The bank noted a sharp drop in traffic through Omani and international routes, indicating that "shippers using the non-Iranian Hormuz lane remain risk-averse."