Goldman Sachs Upgrades Swissquote to 'Buy' on Core Business Strength

Goldman Sachs has upgraded Swissquote Group to "Buy" from "Neutral", citing confidence that the online bank's core operations will more than offset the ongoing weakness in its cryptocurrency business. Following the report, shares in Swissquote rose more than 6% in Wednesday's trading.

Analyst's Rationale

The upgrade is underpinned by Goldman's expectation for stronger earnings from securities trading, foreign exchange (forex), and net interest income. The investment bank's analysts believe this momentum will be sufficient to counteract a decline in revenue from crypto-related activities.

Goldman's forecast for Swissquote's 2026 securities and eForex revenue is SFr507 million, which is 6% above the Visible Alpha consensus of SFr477 million. Conversely, its forecast for net crypto assets income is SFr61 million, 17% below the consensus of SFr74 million, highlighting the bank's diverging view from the market on the drivers of Swissquote's future performance.

Revised Forecasts and Price Target

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target for Swissquote to SFr50 from SFr48, implying a potential upside of 21.5% from the stock's SFr41.16 closing price mentioned in the report. The bank's updated financial models project a 2026 pre-tax profit of SFr411 million, which is 5% above the market consensus and 7% ahead of Swissquote's own guidance.

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Key forecast adjustments include:

• 2026 Revenue: Goldman's forecast of SFr795.1 million is 5% above the company's guidance of SFr760 million.
• 2026 Pre-tax Profit: The SFr411 million estimate is 7% higher than the company's SFr385 million guidance.
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Estimates were raised for 2026 (to SFr2.34), 2027 (to SFr2.57), and 2028 (to SFr2.97).

Market Context and Valuation

Swissquote's shares have underperformed peers over the past year, falling 23% while European retail investment platforms rose an average of 18%. Goldman attributes this lag to the downturn in the digital asset market, noting that crypto-related income accounted for about 12% of Swissquote's revenue in 2025, down from a peak of 22% in 2021.

However, the report highlighted positive underlying trends in the non-crypto business, including a 15% year-on-year growth in trading accounts. Goldman also noted that Swissquote trades at a discount to its peers, with a 2027 estimated price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 times, compared to a peer average of 18.1 times. The broker's price target is based on an unchanged target multiple of 18 times estimated earnings.