Goldman Sachs Lifts 2030 Data Center Forecast, Sees $6 Trillion AI-Driven Expansion

Goldman Sachs has substantially raised its forecast for global data center capacity, anticipating a surge driven by artificial intelligence that will require an estimated $6 trillion in capital spending by 2030. In a new report, the investment bank projects worldwide capacity will reach 217 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the decade, a significant increase from its prior estimate of 168 GW.

AI Fuels Unprecedented Growth

Goldman's revised outlook projects capacity will more than double from the 101 GW expected in 2025, growing at a 17% compound annual rate through 2030. The firm attributed the upward revision to stronger-than-expected project activity tracked by 451 Research, citing voracious demand for computing power from AI infrastructure.

The United States is expected to be the epicenter of this expansion, accounting for 60% to 70% of new capacity additions and reaching an estimated 125 GW by 2030, according to the bank. Growth is being driven by both established hyperscalers and an emerging "neocloud" segment focused on GPU-as-a-service offerings.

Market Impact and Investment Outlook

Despite the massive buildout, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that market conditions are expected to remain "exceptionally tight." Falling vacancy rates are strengthening pricing power for operators, with lease rates per kilowatt potentially nearing $250 this year, a steep climb from approximately $70 in 2021.

The bank identified several power and infrastructure companies as key beneficiaries of the trend. Utilities poised to gain from rising power prices and new data center contracts include:

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• FirstEnergy (FE)
• Xcel Energy (XEL)
• Duke Energy (DUK)
• Sempra (SRE)

Independent power producers such as Talen Energy (TLN), Vistra (VST), and NRG Energy (NRG) were also highlighted. Among data center operators, Goldman maintained its Buy rating on Digital Realty (DLR), citing persistent supply-demand tightness.

Surging Power Demand and Key Risks

The data center expansion is forecast to lift overall U.S. electricity demand growth to a 3.5% compound annual rate through 2030. Globally, Goldman projects data center power consumption will rise 170% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels as AI adoption accelerates.

However, the bank cautioned that the rapid expansion faces significant hurdles. Key risks that could slow future development include power availability, permitting delays, labor and equipment shortages, and local opposition to new projects.