Gold Miners Trade at Discount to Copper Peers, Newmont Valuation Stands Out

A significant valuation gap has emerged within the mining sector, as gold producers trade at a steep discount following a sharp sell-off while copper-focused miners have rallied to potentially stretched multiples, according to an analysis of market data.

Diverging Fortunes in Mining

Gold mining equities have been hit hard by a combination of falling bullion prices and broader market de-risking. An October 26 analysis noted that gold miners can fall 20–30% during a liquidation phase without invalidating the longer-term investment case for gold. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for major gold producers such as Newmont (NEM), Kinross Gold (KGC), and Pan American Silver (PAAS) are near or below 30, a level often considered to be oversold.

In contrast, the outlook for copper has provided a tailwind for producers. Deutsche Bank recently raised its 2027 copper forecast to $14,500 per tonne from a previous $12,500/t, citing a potential market squeeze. This optimism has helped drive strong performance in copper stocks, including Freeport-McMoran (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO).

A Look at the Valuations

This performance split is reflected in current valuations. Copper producers appear expensive relative to their gold-focused peers, based on forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and recent returns.

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• Freeport-McMoran (FCX): Trades at 21.3x forward earnings with a 6-month return of +7.3%.
• Southern Copper (SCCO): Trades at 23.7x forward earnings with a 6-month return of +5.9%.
• Newmont (NEM): Trades at 11.5x forward earnings with a 6-month return of -9.4%.
• Kinross Gold (KGC): Trades at 9.1x forward earnings with a 6-month return of -31.7%.

Newmont Fundamentals in Focus

Among the oversold gold miners, Newmont's financial health appears robust. The company's levered free cash flow is projected to grow from $97 million in fiscal 2023 to $7.30 billion in 2025, based on data cited by Investing.com. The company also maintains low leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 15.7% as of September 30, 2026.

This contrasts with Freeport-McMoran, which, despite its high valuation, has seen flat revenue, slipping EBITDA, and a decline in free cash flow to $1.12 billion in fiscal 2025. While market risks for gold miners remain—including gold price volatility, a stronger dollar, and rising bond yields—the valuation discount and strong cash flow profile have positioned Newmont as a notable name in the sector.