Eli Lilly Incretin Drug Sales to Exceed $100B by 2030, J.P. Morgan Forecasts

Eli Lilly & Co. is poised for significant continued growth, with sales from its incretin drug portfolio expected to surpass $100 billion by 2030, according to a research note from J.P. Morgan. The bank reiterated its Overweight rating on the pharmaceutical giant, citing strong performance from its popular Zepbound and Mounjaro treatments and a promising pipeline of next-generation therapies.

Upgraded Financial Projections

J.P. Morgan raised its financial forecasts for Eli Lilly, signaling confidence in the company's growth trajectory. The bank maintained its December 2026 price target of $1,400 per share.

The updated estimates include:

• 2027 Total Revenue: Increased by 0.7% to $105.67 billion.
• 2027 Adjusted EPS: Increased by 1.1% to $50.99.
• Incretin Sales Forecast: Over $62 billion in 2026, rising to $78 billion in 2027 and over $100 billion in 2030.

Analysts at the bank noted that these projections, which imply roughly 20% annualized growth for the incretin franchise through the end of the decade, remain conservative. They project total company revenue could reach $135 billion by 2030, with adjusted earnings per share approaching $70.

Market Expansion and Pipeline

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The primary driver for this bullish outlook is Lilly's dominant position in the burgeoning obesity and diabetes markets. J.P. Morgan expects Zepbound to capture a significant share of new prescriptions as treatment expands, aided by greater Medicare penetration in the U.S. and growth in international markets.

Beyond current products, the bank highlighted long-term potential from pipeline candidates. This includes the oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo, as well as retatrutide and eloralintide. J.P. Morgan sees retatrutide, potentially launching in late 2027, serving a broad obese patient population, while eloralintide could be used in first-line or weight-maintenance therapies.

Risks and Outlook

J.P. Morgan acknowledged investor concerns, including potential pricing pressure on GLP-1 drugs, competition, and the impact of U.S. pricing regulations like the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the bank argued that Lilly's next-generation medicines could maintain a competitive advantage by setting a higher bar for efficacy and tolerability.

As the company scales its operations, J.P. Morgan forecasts its EBITDA margins will expand from 48.9% in 2026 to 54.7% in 2027. Key risks to this outlook include weaker-than-expected market growth or potential failures in Lilly's clinical trial pipeline.