Citi Initiates 'Buy' Rating on Trustpilot, Citing Dominance in AI Recommendations

Citi Research has initiated coverage of Trustpilot Group PLC (LON:TRST) with a “Buy” rating and a £3.75 price target, citing the online review platform's strategic position in an era of AI-driven recommendations and its potential for significant operating leverage.

The AI Advantage

Citi's bullish thesis centers on Trustpilot's growing influence within large language models (LLMs). The bank highlighted a March 2026 study by SEER Interactive, which found that Trustpilot accounts for approximately 45% of all review-site citations in AI-generated responses to brand recommendation queries in the U.S. This positions the company as a key data source for emerging AI technologies.

The brokerage's valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model, which implies an enterprise-value-to-adjusted EBITDA multiple of 28 times for the 2027 fiscal year.

Financial Outlook and Growth

Citi forecasts a 42% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in Trustpilot's adjusted earnings per share between fiscal years 2026 and 2030. The analysts argue that consensus estimates currently underestimate the company's operating leverage, or its ability to convert revenue into profit.

Ad

Key financial projections and growth drivers include:

• Operating Leverage: Citi projects a revenue-to-adjusted EBITDA drop-through rate of 30% in FY26, compared to a consensus expectation of 25%.
• Margin Expansion: The bank sees adjusted EBITDA margins reaching 25% by FY28, in line with management's own targets.
• North American Opportunity: Citi identified North America as the most significant long-term growth market, with current penetration below 1% compared to 6.8% in the UK. The number of North American clients spending over $20,000 annually has grown at a 48% CAGR since FY22.

Context and Risks

Trustpilot shares declined about 19% following its first-half results on Sept. 15, as investors were reportedly anticipating a guidance upgrade that did not materialize. Management reiterated its forecast for high-teens revenue growth for FY26.

Citi acknowledged several risks, including a potential loss of consumer trust in the platform, slower-than-expected expansion in North America, and failure to meet margin targets. The bank also noted a prior incident on Dec. 4, 2025, when the stock fell 30% following allegations of review manipulation from Grizzly Research. According to Citi, Trustpilot removed 7.8 million fake reviews in 2025 to maintain platform integrity.