OPEC+ Expected to Maintain Oil Production Targets at Sunday Meeting, Sources Say

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, are expected to keep oil production targets unchanged for November when key members meet on Sunday, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, cautioned that a final decision has not yet been made.

Policy Stability Anticipated

The online meeting will include seven core members of the producer group: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. The anticipated decision to hold output steady follows a similar move for October's production targets.

This period of stability comes after the group completed the phased reversal of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day (bpd) supply cut in September, a reduction first agreed upon in 2023. A separate OPEC+ ministerial group, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which reviews market conditions but does not set policy, is also scheduled to meet on Sunday.

Production and Market Context

While Gulf members have been increasing exports, many producers are still pumping below their official quotas. This is partly due to disruptions caused by the Iran war, which has kept collective output below pre-conflict levels.

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According to OPEC data cited by Reuters, the seven core producers pumped 25.0 million bpd in August. While this was an increase of 630,000 bpd from July, it remained approximately 5 million bpd below levels seen before the war began in February.

Focus Shifts to Future Baselines

The group's immediate focus appears to be shifting toward longer-term strategy, specifically the negotiation of production quotas for 2027. These future targets will be determined by new production baselines, which are pending a comprehensive review of each member's output capacity.

• An external consultant, DeGolyer and MacNaughton, is expected to submit its capacity report soon, which will be critical for setting the 2027 baselines.
• OPEC+ also has a separate layer of production cuts of about 2 million bpd that remains in effect for most members through the end of 2026.