Bitcoin's Milder Bear Market Signals Maturation, Bernstein Says

Bitcoin's current bear market, which has seen the cryptocurrency fall approximately 54% from its cycle peak, is a “rather comforting” sign of a maturing market, according to a recent note from Bernstein analysts.

While the digital asset has retested lows near $60,000 before recovering to around $63,000, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani highlighted that this correction is notably less severe than in previous cycles, which typically saw drawdowns of 75% to 90%. “Although it is unclear if we are completely out of the woods... this crypto bear market has been milder than the previous drawdown,” the analysts wrote, adding, “Crypto feels like it’s growing up.”

Shifting Market Dynamics

Bernstein's analysis points to several underlying shifts in the market structure contributing to this resilience. While inflows have slowed, key players are providing a floor for the price.

• Institutional Flows: Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs have attracted $10 billion in 2026, a significant drop from the $60 billion seen in the previous year. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of $5.5 billion this year from a $74 billion asset base.
• Corporate Buying: These ETF outflows have been partially offset by buying from corporate treasury holders. The note highlights a major corporate buyer, named in the report as Strategy, which “continues to be a net buyer in the market.”
• Forced Selling Unlikely: According to Bernstein, this key corporate holder maintains 17 months of cash reserves for its obligations, and its debt represents just 13% of its Bitcoin collateral value, making forced selling unlikely.

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Miners and Regulation

The report also identified a strategic pivot among U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners, who have become net sellers of the cryptocurrency. These companies are increasingly reallocating resources toward AI data center operations, ceding market share to international miners. As a result, the U.S. share of the global hash rate has declined by over 40 basis points in the last two quarters.

On the regulatory front, Bernstein noted continued progress with rulemaking for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act and the launch of crypto perpetual futures on U.S. platforms. However, the analysts view the passage of the broader CLARITY Act this year as a “coin-flip.” Despite the ongoing correction, Bernstein remains long-term bullish but conceded its $150,000 year-end price target now “appears ambitious.”