Bernstein Sets Street-High €2,500 Price Target on ASML Citing Upbeat Outlook

Bernstein analysts on Thursday raised their price target on ASML Holding NV to €2,500 from €2,300, establishing a new high among Wall Street forecasts. The firm cited what it called a "triple happiness" event following the company's second-quarter 2026 results, which beat expectations on revenue, production capacity, and profit margins.

Key Drivers for the Upgrade

In a research note, Bernstein analyst David Dai, who maintained an Outperform rating on the stock, outlined three primary factors behind the increased optimism. The firm highlighted ASML's plans to significantly expand its manufacturing capabilities, its ability to command higher prices, and its stronger-than-anticipated profitability.

Key upside drivers identified by Bernstein include:

• Increased Capacity: ASML plans to boost its Low NA EUV and ArFi system capacity by 30% annually in 2027 and 2028. Its projected DUV capacity of 220 units in 2028 also surpassed expectations.
• Pricing Power: The firm projects a 10% increase in the average selling price for ASML's EUV machines in 2027, followed by a high-single-digit percentage increase in 2028. This is based on management commentary that EUV system throughput has improved 45% year-over-year.
• Margin Uplift: ASML's gross margin guidance for the second half of 2026 is 56%, notably higher than the consensus estimate of 52.6%.

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Revised Financial Estimates

Following these developments, Bernstein significantly lifted its financial forecasts for ASML. The firm now projects revenue of €56 billion in 2027 and €72 billion in 2028. Its earnings per share (EPS) estimates were raised to €53.6 and €75.3 for 2027 and 2028, respectively, with the 2028 EPS forecast now standing 37% above the market consensus.

Other analysts also expressed a positive view. Barclays raised its price target on ASML to €2,400 from €2,000, reiterating an Overweight rating. Barclays analyst Simon Coles stated that gross margins were "the major positive this quarter," driven by a recovery in China DUV sales, better EUV pricing, and a strong upgrades business.