Bernstein Lowers 2030 Gold Forecast to $5,600, Cites Shifting Rate Outlook

Bernstein has lowered its long-term price forecast for gold, though the firm maintains a decidedly bullish stance on the precious metal, arguing it has room to appreciate even amid rising real interest rates.

Forecast Revision

In a note to clients, Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett adjusted the firm's 2030 gold price forecast down from $6,100 to $5,600 per ounce. The revision reflects a significant shift in market expectations for interest rates.

According to Brackett, the market has moved from anticipating one to two rate cuts at the start of the year to now pricing in two to three rate hikes before 2027. This has pushed real interest rates up from approximately 1.7% in early March to around 2.7%.

Central Banks Remain Key Driver

Despite the historical negative correlation between gold and real rates, Brackett noted the metal's recent resilience. He pointed out that gold ETF holdings have remained largely stable this year and that prices have held firm following recent Federal Reserve rate increases. Brackett believes gold "can continue to grind higher in a slowly rising real rate environment," a pattern he says was also evident between 2023 and 2025.

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The core of Bernstein's bullish thesis rests on central bank activity. "We continue to believe that the de-dollarization/diversification of central bank reserves out of the USD and other G7 currencies and into gold is not over," Brackett wrote. He highlighted that major foreign reserve holders, including China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, still have gold allocations below 10%.

Potential Risks

Brackett also outlined key risks to the firm's outlook. The primary concern is a potential slowdown in the pace of central bank gold purchases.

Other potential headwinds include:

• Persistent inflation: High diesel and refined product prices could elevate inflation expectations, potentially forcing further interest rate hikes.
• Political shifts: A change in the U.S. political landscape following midterm elections could diminish safe-haven demand for gold, according to the note.