Bernstein Holds $3,100 Aluminium Forecast as Market Deficit Is Seen Outweighing Supply Recovery

Bernstein is holding its second-half 2026 price forecast for aluminium at $3,100 per ton, even as supply-side pressures ease following a ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz and a swift production recovery in the Middle East. The investment firm projects the market will remain in a deficit this year, providing a strong floor for prices.

Supply Concerns Abate

Aluminium prices saw a significant run-up between March and May as the Strait of Hormuz crisis threatened raw material imports and metal exports from the region. According to Bernstein, much of that risk premium has now dissipated with the reopening of key shipping routes.

Production is also ramping up faster than anticipated. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) reported that its 1.6 million-ton-per-annum Al Taweelah facility is restarting ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, China is set to add 740,000 tons of new smelting capacity this year, lifting its total estimated output to approximately 45.3 million tons.

A Mixed Demand Picture

The outlook for global demand remains complex. Bernstein noted that while physical market conditions are tighter than before the recent conflict, underlying demand is not uniformly strong.

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• China: Export-oriented manufacturing has shown resilience, but domestic demand from the crucial construction and real estate sectors continues to weaken.
• Developed Markets: Manufacturing conditions in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. have stabilized, though Bernstein described underlying demand as "far from robust."

Price Outlook and Market Balance

Despite the improving supply situation, Bernstein expects the aluminium market to remain in a deficit through 2026. This structural imbalance is the core of the firm's thesis for sustained high prices.

Analysts believe the deficit will support prices above the $3,000 per ton level this year, with current producer margins remaining above long-term mid-cycle levels. Following this period of strength, Bernstein anticipates prices will gradually normalize toward those long-term averages.