Bernstein Cuts 2030 Gold Forecast to $5,600, Stays Bullish on Central Bank Demand

Bernstein has lowered its long-term price forecast for gold but maintains a firmly bullish stance, arguing that strong, structural demand from central banks will continue to support the precious metal even in a higher interest rate environment.

Forecast Trimmed on Rate Outlook

In a research note, Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett reduced the firm's 2030 gold price forecast to $5,600 per ounce from a previous estimate of $6,100. The revision follows a significant shift in interest rate expectations, which have moved from anticipating one or two cuts at the start of the year to now pricing in two or three hikes by 2027, according to the firm.

This change in outlook has pushed real interest rates up to approximately 2.7% from 1.7% in early March. Historically, higher real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, creating a headwind for prices.

Central Bank Buying Remains Key Driver

Despite the challenging rate environment, Bernstein identifies central bank buying as the "key structural driver" for gold. The firm believes global central banks are continuing a long-term strategy of diversifying their reserves away from the U.S. dollar and other G7 currencies.

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Brackett noted that several major reserve holders, including China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, still allocate less than 10% of their reserves to gold, suggesting significant room for further purchases. "We continue to believe central banks are not finished diversifying," the analyst wrote.

Market Resilience and Potential Risks

Bernstein highlighted gold's recent resilience, observing that prices have held up well following the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike and that gold ETF holdings have remained "broadly flat" this year. The analyst suggested the metal "can rise with slowly rising real rates," citing a similar dynamic observed between 2023 and 2025.

However, the firm also outlined key risks to its bullish thesis, with a potential slowdown in central bank buying being the primary concern. Other risks include persistently high energy prices stoking inflation and prompting further rate hikes, as well as a potential reduction in safe-haven demand tied to U.S. political developments.