AutoStore Upgraded to Overweight by Barclays on Amazon Deal, US Policy

Barclays upgraded its rating for warehouse automation company AutoStore to “overweight” from “equal weight” on Monday, citing a major partnership with Amazon and potential U.S. policy tailwinds. The bank also raised its price target on the company's stock to NOK20.50 from a previous NOK18.20.

Analyst's Rationale

The upgrade is based on several factors, including strong order intake so far this year and healthy industry dynamics. Barclays raised its 2027-28 sales and adjusted EBIT forecasts for AutoStore by approximately 2%. The new price target is based on a valuation of 25 times the company's estimated 2027 enterprise value to adjusted EBITA (EV/adjusted EBITA), an increase from the previous multiple of 22 times.

Barclays noted that while it maintains a “neutral” industry view on European Capital Goods, it believes sector valuations have largely priced in negative sentiment. The bank sees stabilizing macroeconomic indicators and earnings projections as supportive for the group.

Key Growth Catalysts

Two primary developments underpin Barclays' more optimistic outlook for AutoStore.

Amazon Partnership

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Barclays estimates the revenue opportunity from the Amazon partnership could reach approximately $300 million, equivalent to over 40% of AutoStore’s fiscal 2026 revenue guidance. This projection assumes that 20 of Amazon's more than 1,300 global fulfillment centers are eventually equipped with AutoStore systems over the multi-year partnership.

U.S. Policy Tailwinds

The bank also highlighted recent U.S. government actions banning the import of certain advanced robotics, including autonomous mobile robots, due to national security concerns. According to Barclays, this creates uncertainty for Chinese warehouse solution providers and could improve AutoStore's competitive position in the U.S. market.

Sector Context

AutoStore's stock has significantly outperformed its peers, rising 36% year-to-date. In contrast, competitors KION and Jungheinrich have seen their shares decline by 34% and 25%, respectively, over the same period. Barclays maintained its “overweight” ratings on both KION and Jungheinrich, suggesting it sees selective opportunities within the broader sector.