Aeroméxico and GAPB Q2 Results Highlight Fuel, Traffic Pressures in Mexico

Mexican airline Aeroméxico and airport operator Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAPB) reported soft second-quarter 2026 results, signaling notable headwinds in the country's air travel sector from high fuel costs and shifting traffic trends, according to a Jefferies report published Tuesday.

Aeroméxico Grapples with Fuel Costs

Aeroméxico reported second-quarter EBITDAR of $264 million, a 21% decrease from the previous quarter and at the low end of its guidance. The results were significantly impacted by a $30 million fuel headwind. Despite a 12.5% increase in revenue, the airline's EBITDAR margin was 18% for the period.

The carrier's management provided guidance for the second half of 2026 that implies full-year EBITDAR between $1.45 billion and $1.59 billion, which aligns with the FactSet consensus of $1.5 billion. However, this forecast assumes average all-in fuel prices of $3.20 per gallon in Q3 and $3.00 in Q4, a potential risk given the current U.S. spot jet-fuel price of $3.38 per gallon.

GAPB Navigates Traffic Decline

Airport operator GAPB posted a second-quarter EBITDA of 6 billion Mexican pesos, an 8% year-over-year increase. The growth came despite a 6% year-over-year decline in passenger traffic, which was offset by higher commercial revenues per passenger and the consolidation of its CBX (Cross Border Xpress) segment.

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GAPB demonstrated strong cost control, with operating costs remaining flat year-over-year despite a 22% rise in employee expenses. This efficiency helped its EBITDA margin expand by 200 basis points to 69%.

Revised Outlooks and Analyst View

Following the recent trends, GAPB updated its full-year 2026 guidance. The company now anticipates a challenging traffic environment but improved financial performance:

• Passenger Traffic: Lowered to a range of negative 3% to flat, from a previous forecast of 2-5% growth.
• EBITDA Growth: Raised to 10-12% year-over-year, up from 8-11%.
• Capital Expenditure: Reduced to 12 billion pesos from 13.5 billion pesos.

Following the results, Jefferies maintained its Hold ratings on both Aeroméxico and GAPB.