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Aeroméxico and GAPB Q2 Results Highlight Fuel, Traffic Pressures in Mexico
Summary
Mexican airline Aeroméxico saw its Q2 earnings impacted by a significant fuel headwind, while airport operator GAPB contended with a drop in passenger traffic, according to a new report.
Mexican airline Aeroméxico and airport operator Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAPB) reported soft second-quarter 2026 results, signaling notable headwinds in the country's air travel sector from high fuel costs and shifting traffic trends, according to a Jefferies report published Tuesday.
Aeroméxico Grapples with Fuel Costs
Aeroméxico reported second-quarter EBITDAR of $264 million, a 21% decrease from the previous quarter and at the low end of its guidance. The results were significantly impacted by a $30 million fuel headwind. Despite a 12.5% increase in revenue, the airline's EBITDAR margin was 18% for the period.
The carrier's management provided guidance for the second half of 2026 that implies full-year EBITDAR between $1.45 billion and $1.59 billion, which aligns with the FactSet consensus of $1.5 billion. However, this forecast assumes average all-in fuel prices of $3.20 per gallon in Q3 and $3.00 in Q4, a potential risk given the current U.S. spot jet-fuel price of $3.38 per gallon.
GAPB Navigates Traffic Decline
Airport operator GAPB posted a second-quarter EBITDA of 6 billion Mexican pesos, an 8% year-over-year increase. The growth came despite a 6% year-over-year decline in passenger traffic, which was offset by higher commercial revenues per passenger and the consolidation of its CBX (Cross Border Xpress) segment.
AdGAPB demonstrated strong cost control, with operating costs remaining flat year-over-year despite a 22% rise in employee expenses. This efficiency helped its EBITDA margin expand by 200 basis points to 69%.
Revised Outlooks and Analyst View
Following the recent trends, GAPB updated its full-year 2026 guidance. The company now anticipates a challenging traffic environment but improved financial performance:
- Passenger Traffic: Lowered to a range of negative 3% to flat, from a previous forecast of 2-5% growth.
- EBITDA Growth: Raised to 10-12% year-over-year, up from 8-11%.
- Capital Expenditure: Reduced to 12 billion pesos from 13.5 billion pesos.
Following the results, Jefferies maintained its Hold ratings on both Aeroméxico and GAPB.
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