XRP Flashes Bullish Signals From Derivatives and ETFs, But Historical October Weakness Looms

XRP's price pulled back to around $1.50 on Thursday, trimming some of its recent gains, but remains up over 15.6% for the week. Despite the short-term dip, market data reveals three key bullish signals for the digital asset, though these are contrasted by weak spot market indicators and a pattern of historical underperformance in October.

Bullish Divergence in Market Data

Several metrics point to underlying strength and renewed investor interest in XRP, creating a divergence between long-term holder sentiment, derivatives speculation, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows.

• Holder Sentiment: Data from Santiment shows XRP's 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is at -11.75%. This indicates that the average long-term holder who purchased in the last year is currently at a loss, which analysts suggest could reduce profit-taking pressure and limit further downside.
• Derivatives Activity: Open interest for XRP futures on Binance has climbed to nearly $600 million, a level comparable to January highs and well above the 180-day moving average of approximately $445 million, according to data compiled by Woofun AI. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that positive funding rates suggest buyers are driving this increase, signaling a revival of speculative interest after months of low activity.
• Consistent ETF Inflows: A spot XRP ETF (XRPC) has recorded 11 consecutive weeks of net inflows, according to SoSoValue data. While weekly amounts are modest, typically between $1 million and $20 million, the consistency contrasts sharply with recent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT and Ethereum-related products. The cumulative net inflow for the XRP ETF has reached $1.75 billion.

Spot Market and Seasonal Headwinds

Ad

Despite the positive signals from derivatives and ETFs, spot market demand appears tepid. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain pointed out that the XRP premium on Coinbase (COIN) relative to Binance has fallen to just 0.0055%. This metric, often viewed as a proxy for U.S. spot buying pressure, currently suggests a lack of strong demand from cash buyers.

Furthermore, historical seasonality presents a potential obstacle. Data from CryptoRank shows that XRP's price has fallen in October in 8 of the last 13 years, with an average monthly decline of 5.14%. Last October, the asset saw a significant drop of 11.9%.

Market Outlook

The current market structure presents a conflict between bullish on-chain and derivatives metrics and bearish historical and spot market data. The key variable for XRP's trajectory will be whether spot market buyers on exchanges like Coinbase begin to mirror the steady demand seen from ETF investors. A failure to attract this spot demand could make it difficult for the recent rally to overcome the asset's historical tendency for a weak October.