US eCommerce Growth Accelerated to 11% in Q2, Bernstein Reports

Investment firm Bernstein has increased its second-quarter estimates for key U.S. eCommerce companies, citing preliminary data that suggests the sector grew by 11% year-over-year. This represents a marked acceleration from the 5-6% growth observed in previous periods and an increase from the first quarter, according to a note released by the firm's analysts on Wednesday.

Sector Growth Spurs Higher Estimates

The stronger growth, partly attributed to successful sales events during the quarter, has led Bernstein to lift its gross merchandise volume (GMV) forecasts for the sector ahead of upcoming earnings reports. However, the firm cautioned that the positive data also means investor expectations are now higher.

Bernstein's revised estimates point to broad-based strength across several major online retailers, with the firm upgrading its outlook for eBay, Etsy, and Wayfair above their own guidance.

Company-Specific Outlooks

Bernstein provided updated forecasts for several major eCommerce players:

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• eBay (EBAY): The firm projects second-quarter GMV at $21.9 billion. This figure represents 11% year-over-year growth on a foreign exchange neutral basis, exceeding the company's own guidance of 8-10%.
• Etsy (ETSY): Bernstein raised its Q2 gross merchandise sales estimate to $2.55 billion, or 6% year-over-year growth, which is above the company's forecast. Analysts cited strengthening alternative data, improved eCommerce conditions, and ad optimization as key drivers.
• Wayfair (W): The firm is forecasting 6.5% year-over-year revenue growth for the quarter, with a projected gross margin of 29.8%. Data reportedly indicates a modest improvement in active customer growth.

Amazon Focus Remains on AWS

For Amazon (AMZN), Bernstein noted that investor focus remains primarily on its cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), rather than its core retail operations. Expectations for AWS are elevated following strong results from Google Cloud Platform, with analysts now anticipating growth in the mid-30% range or higher.

The firm also suggested that AWS margins could face modest pressure in the second quarter due to the timing of stock-based compensation before improving in the third quarter. While Bernstein does not expect a significant increase to Amazon's 2026 capital expenditure guidance, it anticipates that 2027 figures will rise substantially.