Strategy's Bitcoin Policy Shift Creates Market Uncertainty, Standard Chartered Says

Uncertainty surrounding an apparent shift in how Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, manages its vast Bitcoin holdings is creating near-term headwinds for the cryptocurrency, according to a note from Standard Chartered. The bank told investors on Friday that while the ambiguity is causing market "noise," clearer communication from the company should resolve the issue, leading the bank to maintain its end-of-2026 Bitcoin price forecast of $100,000.

A Pivot from 'Never Sell'

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, appears to be moving away from its long-held "never sell Bitcoin" mantra toward a more complex approach, analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote. This change is reportedly driven by a decline in the company's mNAV metric, which divides its enterprise value by its Bitcoin holdings. This ratio has fallen to approximately 1.0 from much higher levels seen between 2020 and mid-2025, making its previous model of issuing shares to buy Bitcoin less effective.

Standard Chartered noted that Strategy is now pivoting to use its Bitcoin reserves as backing for its preferred stock, STRC, which functions as a credit product. The bank highlighted that the STRC stock, with about $10 billion in notional value outstanding, is "heavily over-collateralised" and should trade back to its $100 par value from its current level of around $90.

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Market Impact and Outlook

According to Kendrick, effective communication of this new strategy is crucial to reassure markets that a "wholesale selling" of Bitcoin by the company is unlikely. "If this signalling proves effective, it should remove the need for MSTR to actually sell any BTC," the note stated.

Strategy is a significant market player, holding 843,775 coins, which represents more than 4% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be created. Standard Chartered views the recent price weakness in Bitcoin as "mostly noise rather than a signal of BTC's medium-term direction," reaffirming its confidence in the asset's longer-term trajectory.