Strategy's Bitcoin Policy Shift Creates Market Overhang, Standard Chartered Says

Uncertainty surrounding a strategic shift by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is creating short-term price pressure on the cryptocurrency, according to a Friday note from Standard Chartered. The bank maintained its year-end 2026 price forecast of $100,000 for Bitcoin, arguing the current market weakness is a temporary overhang.

Strategy's Evolving Approach

Analyst Geoff Kendrick noted that Strategy, which holds 843,775 coins representing more than 4% of Bitcoin's total eventual supply, appears to be pivoting away from its long-held "never sell Bitcoin" mantra. This change is reportedly driven by a decline in the company's mNAV metric, which divides its enterprise value by its Bitcoin holdings.

According to the note, this metric has fallen to around 1.0 from much higher levels seen between 2020 and mid-2025. This has made its previous model of issuing new shares to fund Bitcoin purchases less effective, prompting a change in its capital strategy.

A New Focus on Preferred Stock

Standard Chartered said Strategy is now shifting toward using its vast Bitcoin holdings as backing for its preferred stock (ticker: STRC), which functions as a credit product. Kendrick stated that STRC, with approximately $10 billion in notional value outstanding, is "heavily over-collateralised."

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As a result, the analyst expects the preferred stock should trade back up to its $100 par value from its current level of around $90. This new approach marks a significant evolution from the company's original accumulation strategy.

Market Impact and Outlook

Kendrick explained that clear and effective communication from Strategy about its new approach is "key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely." If the company's signaling is successful, it should remove the need for Strategy to sell any of its Bitcoin holdings, thereby removing the price overhang.

Despite the near-term ambiguity, Standard Chartered views the recent weakness in Bitcoin's price as "mostly noise rather than a signal of BTC's medium-term direction." The bank reaffirmed its forecast for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026.