Stealth Tanker Fleet Moves Over 4 Million BPD Through Hormuz, Capping Oil Prices

A massive and risky “shuttle” operation is quietly moving millions of barrels of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf, serving as a critical stabilizing force for global energy prices. Despite persistent attacks on shipping, this steady flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has helped prevent a surge in energy-driven inflation that many analysts had feared at the outset of the regional conflict.

The 'Dark Fleet' Operation

According to sources familiar with the shipping operations, the system involves smaller tankers transporting crude through the Strait of Hormuz, often with their location transponders turned off to avoid detection. They then transfer their cargo to larger supertankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman. This covert method has become a vital lifeline for global markets.

While difficult to track precisely, these sources indicate the volume of oil moved this way is higher than market estimates of 4 million barrels per day (bpd). This helps explain a recent statement from U.S. energy officials that a surprising 9 million bpd transited the strait over a seven-day period—nearly half the pre-conflict volume of approximately 20 million bpd.

Market Impact

This clandestine flow is a key reason why Brent crude futures have largely remained within an $80 to $90 per barrel range through August, according to traders and analysts. This is significantly below the most pessimistic forecasts of $150 per barrel that circulated when tensions in the region first escalated.

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The shuttle trade, combined with the release of strategic reserves and softening global demand, has successfully limited the broader economic fallout from the conflict. Data from firms like Kpler and Vortexa confirm that cargoes from Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait are utilizing these shuttle arrangements, in addition to the United Arab Emirates.

A High-Stakes Endeavor

While the operation has kept markets supplied, it comes at a high cost. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) stated that 23 of its vessels have been attacked since the conflict began, resulting in one crew member fatality and 20 injuries. The state-owned oil giant affirmed its commitment to supplying global markets but highlighted the severe risks.

"Attacks on the delivery infrastructure that maintains the flow of energy are never just an attack on one company," ADNOC said in a statement. The company noted that the volatility is causing "profound harm" well beyond those directly affected in the region. The environmental risks are also growing, with an increase in oil spills reported as a consequence of the hazardous transits.