Standard Chartered Maintains $100K Bitcoin Target Despite Strategy's Policy Shift

Uncertainty surrounding a strategic shift by Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is creating near-term headwinds for the cryptocurrency's price, according to a note from Standard Chartered. The bank, however, maintains that clearer communication from the company could remove this market overhang, and it reiterated its bullish long-term price target.

Strategy's Shifting Stance

In a Friday note to investors, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick highlighted that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) "appears to be pivoting from its 'never sell Bitcoin' mantra to a more complex approach." This is a significant development for the market, as the company is the most prominent corporate investor in the asset.

Strategy's holdings are substantial enough to influence market sentiment:

• It holds 843,775 coins.
• This represents more than 4% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.

The Rationale Behind the Pivot

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The bank attributes this strategic evolution to a decline in Strategy's mNAV metric, which measures its enterprise value relative to its Bitcoin holdings. According to the note, this ratio has fallen to approximately 1.0 from much higher levels seen between 2020 and mid-2025, making its previous model of issuing shares to fund Bitcoin purchases less effective.

As a result, Standard Chartered said Strategy is now shifting toward using its Bitcoin as backing for its preferred stock (ticker: STRC), which functions as a credit product. The bank noted the STRC issue, with approximately $10 billion notional outstanding, is "heavily over-collateralised" and should trade back to its $100 par value from its current price of around $90.

Market Impact and Outlook

Kendrick emphasized that effective communication from Strategy is now key "to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely." The analyst suggested that if the company's signaling about its new approach is successful, it should remove the need for it to sell any of its Bitcoin holdings.

Despite the short-term uncertainty, Standard Chartered views recent Bitcoin price weakness as "mostly noise rather than a signal of BTC's medium-term direction." The bank reaffirmed its end-of-2026 Bitcoin price forecast of $100,000.